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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: jjetstream who wrote (16206)4/13/2001 4:29:00 PM
From: American Spirit  Read Replies (1) of 37746
 
You obviously haven't been on the Yahoo threads. gg
At the height of shorting it was 99% bashing away ignoring any semblance of credibility. Plenty of phony rumors from God knows who. And I'm sure organized gangs working as well bashing away. And though SI is much more mature and thoughtful sometimes SI doesn't even have posts on some stocks.

On the flip side, during the big bull run there was too much hyping. I'd say a balanced debate is a good thing and when someone predicts too much of a move one way or another they can expect to be challenged on it. Bottomline no one really knows exactly what when so no one can pretend to be a genius. Even the math doesn't always work out, and numbers are constantly changing. So I know I was just lucky calling a bottom 10 days ago but I had a gut feel and I stuck my nose out. I had been wrong several times before and paid for it with cash.

However, climactic sell-offs or rallies which last a long time do tend to get us deeply into over-sold or over-bought areas. We were way over-bought in techs last year. But now IMHO we are oversold, and that's looking forward not at this Q's suddenly dismal numbers but toward the second half (recovery?).

Remember the last SOX cycle and how fast it turned around. INTC went from A to Z and now it seems back at or near A again. All within what about 18 months? So if it gets back to Z again in a year (let's say) then that's a 300% or so gain in one year buying down at the bottom. Always a question where the bottom is, but $23 did feel like it to me. Therefore in the long run, buying low and selling high is the only way to go. If you have the cash and the patience. But these days those corrects can happen fast and furious. So when the tide turns you want to be on the winning direction and be willing to give up your old attidudes quickly. Falling in love or hate with any stock can kill you sometimes. I know from experience. I think we all do.
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