>> If anybody does offer visibility, look to see what justification they give to back it up. That is, is there any firm basis for it, or are they just hoping?
Good point. During the February's conference call, Warmenhoven cited the sales forecast as the basis for his confidence in the upcoming quarter. As a long time sales manager, I should have been skeptical of that response. Salesmen are always optimistic (if not, they get transferred to accounting), and base their forecasts on a linear projection of recent success. They're usually the very last to accept that things are changing.
>> the way to make money in a bear market, is to take the "buy-the-dip" tactic that worked so well in the bull market, and turn it on its head. Until I see evidence that we are not in a bear market, I will consider shorting just about any tech that makes a 30% upmove off its lows.
That's a reasonable reaction, in line with bromides like "when in Rome..." and "don't fight the tape". But taking an effective bearish stance means you have to think like the bear, and after lurking some of their lairs, I wouldn't care to. I think their orientation is a reflection of their philosophy on life, and I refuse to adopt a nihilistic outlook. So I'll remain a singed and cautious optimist, hold my core positions, and write front month covered calls during rallies rather than shorting.
jmho,
uf |
