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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box

QQQ 622.72

+0.3%

Jan 23 4:00 PM EST

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To: hobo who wrote (10429)	4/13/2001 9:30:03 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) of 10876

toscano, SI probably has the smartest people posting. It is probably has the most followed message boards as well. Yahoo and Raging Bull have lots of posts but there are too few worth reading --and it is a real pain trying to find those ones. Actually on Yahoo, most messages are bearish..another good contrarian indicator. My reason for being bullish on the Naz near term has also something to do with how bearish the retail traders are. Obviously the perrenial bulls have been wiped out in the past few months. What I find very interesting is that the MOST bearish threads are listed as the top ones on the main page for Silicon Investor. "Clown Free" seems to be the most popular run by a fellow that used to get burned shorting Dell in the 1990s. To me it represents the retail trading crowd that survived the downturn and possibly made a fortune in that time. The most active boards being bearish tells me that the potential for a MASSIVE short covering rally is there. It is only potential but I am willing to take my chances, given that I have seen stocks like JNPR go from the low 30s to 50 in a week! There are lots of other 4 letter stocks that have yet to have massive short covering rallies. I am betting that such stocks like JNPR were shorted (or puts were bought) on the way up along with short covering. IMHO, the mutual fund investors are still there...they were not wiped out like the margin buyers of technology were. If they keep pumping money into technology stocks. IMHO, only when the mutual fund buyers have done their purchases will the market head south again. I am only looking for such a rapid gain in the Nasdaq that people will be amazed how it happened. The possibility is there that we could hit 2300 by next week...only a possibility but one that I willing to "bet" on. The fact that Microsoft's earnings are near the end of the week is a good thing. I believe it is going to be the strongest big cap to report inline numbers and will probably not reduce estimates below what Goldman Sachs currently has for the company. The demise of the internet companies has been a blessing for Microsoft--less threats to its core businesses. Right now, MSFT is by far the biggest component on the QQQs and the stock continues to gain. ----------- I mentioned the other reasons for my bullishness. High cash levels in mutual funds. Lately the biggest one may be Jonathen Joseph's semiconductor call.

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