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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.03

+0.8%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (51372)	4/14/2001 12:35:19 AM
From: Craig Lawler	Read Replies (1) of 77399

Thanks for the great post. I would like to research the potential write off amounts. Anyone know where I can get the following info. 1. Amount of the "loan-to-own" program (aka vendor financing) and to whom these loans where made. Gut tells me that 80% should be flushed. 2. Inventory for two quarters. Since the market is flooded with CSCO gear at probably 10 cents on the dollar due to auctions combined with the slow down in cap ex, I assume that the next two quarters are down big. Does this stuff have shelf life in terms of technical upgrades. If so, that could help the battle with the cheaper re-sale equipment but also could hurt current inventories. From Multex.com inventory went up from a year ago from about 3/4 of a B to about 2.5 B. The biggest jump in the last two quarters-and that was before the breaks really hit. So what should I guess? At least 1 B write down but this of course does not take into account any returned items and the 2.5 B number is as of 1/01 so that is old to. At least 2 B write down. 3. VC fund. I remember some sort of 1 Billion commitment earlier this year (need help-big guess). Was that cash spend or can it be called? Do they list other companies that they have invested in? If you know where to look, I will do the research and report back. 4. Real estate. They were building like crazy and have forward commitments of a few million sf. Could be an addition big cost. 1/2 B 5. Severance package. Unbelievable. This is to the same people who in the tight labor market pounded on CSCO for high pay, options, free lunch, great health care benefits, etc. And now pay them more... 1/2 B 6. From Multex.com I get the following from last qrt. About 4 B in receivables. That is up from 1.7 B a year ago. Why? Yes some sales growth but I could envision this being chopped in half via a write down. That is 2 B alone. The above quick research guess says about 4 B on the low end to 7 B on the very high end. But, I still do not know about the loan program and the VC investments? Appreciate comments and help. I do not see how CSCO can justify their valuation here but can understand that America is in love with them and every money manager from coast to coast thinks they are safe acting with the rest of the crowd if they buy them at an 80% discount. So, I do expect the stock to go up. Would some one tell me why anyone has a "buy" or "strong buy" on CSCO if the above questions are still not answered by CSCO? Also, is there any SEC regulation that you have to pre-announce a certain number of days in advance of earnings if your news is significant? May is just around the corner. Appreciate feedback. I know these are huge numbers but just look at the previous quarters. This is not a slow down in sales anymore! This is a decline in sales. They are not a young JNPR that has small sale figures that are easy to increase. They are a huge company.

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