Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 252.04

+0.3%

Jan 27 3:59 PM EST

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To: dale_laroy who wrote (35718)	4/14/2001 8:26:18 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) of 275872

dale: "What I mean by disappoint is that Intel will meet the revised analysts projections. You are probably right about Q1 being Intel's high quarter for the year. Q4 will probably be the closest to Q1, with Q2 being abysmal, and Q3 possibly a loss. But I think Intel will close out the year with at least 35 cents earnings per share for the year. And this will probably be closer to 50 cents per share than 35 cents per share. Then we are both on the same page...I just don't see INTC at $28 on Q1 earnings of $0.25 or less and trending negatively by all indicators for the rest of the year and I don't see INTC holding at $28 if their Q1 revenues decline by more than 10% sequentially...I know management guided a 25% sequential revenue decline, but I just can't believe that $28 discounts such a calamity occurring in the house of INTC...If the market believed 25%, INTC would be in the teens right now...Reality bites and when a real sequential revenue decline greater than 10% and a real sequential eps decline of certainly more than 20% are recorded on Tuesday, I'd guess there's at least a 50% probability of a significant INTC devaluation...If, in fact, INTC's sequential decline is greater than 20% and sequential eps decline is greater than 30%, then I'd up the probability to 80%... Exciting times at INTC this week...Could see $30 or $25 before earnings...Might see a low between $17and $22.25 after earnings...INTC's 52 week low of $22.25 set earlier this month is likely to be replaced by a new 52 week low later this month, if not on Wednesday of this week!!!

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