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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Vitas who wrote (94072)	4/14/2001 1:38:39 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) of 436258

Richard Russell sounds like he isn't even in the market for the next 5 years and hasn't been for years. He admits there may be "mini" rallies even in his worst-case scenario, but mini in his mind could mean weeks and months at a time so maybe 50% moves. He frankly has no idea how long any bear market might last nor if it's already over. And if he were so sure of himself he'd be shorting longterm instead of going to T-bills and making almost nothing. More timid than my grandmother and also doesn't mention the fact that the "dangerous" Naz just slid 80% and some stocks are down more than 98%. Doesn't that count for anything to this guy? Jeez. Also he states everyone is so bullish. BS. Most have bailed this market, avoided risk or gone short recently and that avoidance of risk or shorting has gotten just as climactic and overdone as the buying was last year. He also doesn't account for what may be 5-6 rate cuts culminating in cheaply wiping out all that terrible debt he's talking about. We can get 1.9% per year credit card offers now for switching balances. That's beneath the money market. Corporations in debt may soon be able to re-structure theirs at around 3.5%. Also what about companies that have no debt just plenty of cash? Are they sells too? And what about defensive issues and energy? And are Baby Bells at 11 PE dangerous and over valued? This guy sounds like he's a historian who never takes any risk, therefore never gains. Okay he never loses either but he might as well not be in the market at all, much less commenting on it. Frankly I think he could be dangerous to anyone trying to make money in the market. He basically has nothing to say except beware and stay on the sidelines. But most people won't agree. Staying on the sidelines means 4% on your money when on VZ or SBC alone you can make 3% dividends and buy them low here. Or MO and other Blue CHips even more of a dividend. At least he should say BA is a nice place to be with defence spending going up. Or energy stocks. But no, NOTHING looks good to this guy. Fugettabouthim.

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