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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (94128)4/14/2001 1:50:48 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
no, they won't.... bear mkts are funny. how many times have we seen bad news bot only to see it sold a week or 2 later and lows taken out? recall INTC's warnings was bot back in early december and the "bottom" was declared... now we have a bounce for 2 weeks as bad news is bot (DELL said no visibility if you recall and said they "may" make their number.. everyone then decided that since the mkt rallied that day that the news must be good...)

then we had a semi analyst call "bottom" cause he felt it might be one... total joke... but the mkt rallied on the news, and everybody figured: he must be right. But wait, look at the DATA in semis, look at the inventory levels, look at what the co's are saying: no visibility, in CY's case: no orders, and a continuation of the downward trend in business as far as they could see. That news was bot too if you recall, why? answer: no reason jsut like with INTC in december.

how true trading lows are made: mkts buy bad news at a bottom when all the news is bad (analysts too) and good news is being sold (all HOPE is lost and all rallies are doubted by everybody instead of having CNBC run a "mkt bottoms" special, they'll have a "how to get out with what you've still got and retire" special. more importantly though, stocks trade at a hefty discount when that bad news is being bot, this mkt is nowhere near those levels.)

mkt psychology is a funny thing in a bear... don't put your faith in it. put your faith in the DATA.. it is the only thing that will show you the true path.

and until we get some sort of panic decline to put in a trading low, the trend is down...
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