Thanks Dale. An interesting read. I repeat this portion:
A: The U.S. is swimming in debt, the U.S. savings rate is negative, $4.5 trillion in U.S. stock values already has been wiped out, corporate manufacturing facilities have been overbuilt, retail sales are dropping, world competition is vicious, the U.S. is running a trade deficit of over $1 billion a day, the dollar's strength is probably not sustainable, mutual funds are fully invested in other people's money and both individual-investor and professional sentiment still are far too bullish. Investors obviously aren't prepared for anything resembling a worst-case scenario. Most keep looking for, hoping for, a bottom.
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I agree with the last sentence. I feel the buying last week was the public starting to act on the analysts saying we are at a bottom. People are so scared to miss the bottom. I say, "wait and see what happens with this and next week's earnings and future projections/guidance." If they are positive and people come out with lowered inventories, then we can move forward. But until then, I see many things on shakey ground. I'm happy keeping the majority of retirement funds in money market.
As Velo has stated in the past Bear Market rallies are fast and furious, but this last rally was on no certain fundamentals other than "I think this is THE bottom." ???????? |
