Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: biz521 who wrote (5788)	4/14/2001 7:36:49 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) of 52237

>>Are we almost in the reversal? Go back to October 9th 1998, and look at a chart of that reversal & look at a chart of last april 10, 2000 and see what it looked like? << Those two dates were typical reversal patterns with double bottoms approxamately 6 weeks apart. Our current low on the NASDAQ and NDX was on a large decline with no previous low anywhere near here thus I expect at minimum a retest in the future. The most bullish looking charts are the OEX and SPX but the double bottom is a bit too close together to convince me we are making a major trend change. The indicator Don and I use also is VERY good at predicting major trend changes and hasn't given us a signal yet that we recognize anyway. I think this is just a corrective wave in a bear market that will ultimately fail and head back down. Some on our board were asking for a more clear outlook, here is what I wrote ........ I have learned ( sometimes the hard way -g-) to never ignore Don's signals. He has almost across the board sells thus a drop anytime here is likely. It is only the severity of that dip and what comes next that most disagree on. I think the concensus that is building is looking for the following.... A short term high Monday or Tuesday then a 2-3 day drop with higher prices following Mid Term possibly going up to around 2000-2200 NDX. Longer term. After that we will likely at least retest the lows and probably will go even lower to around 1100 NDX before going into a longer term trading range for months on end bouncing between the low 1000s and 2000s. The only bad things that doesn't allow for this much advance in the MIDTERM is so many people having the 23rd as an important turn date. I have seen the 23rd spouted as a 55 day cycle turn and either a Gann or Bradly date I forgot which. What makes the 23rd most scary to me is that it is the Monday after Options expiration which is oftena day of trend reversal. The only other fly in the ointment is that the Max Pain point for the QQQ and a few others heavily traded issues are lower than our last close. See my post about how Max Pain may not work at all times for sinister reasons. Basically what we are looking for is a drop starting late Monday through Wednesday then another leg up to around 2200 NDX. Of course we are not THAT confident and also say have your stops in place in case we drop earlier in our mid term call. FWIW - only 80 our of the 144 registered posters actually posted. Of those, half have not posted since last spring. We warned and warned that a large decline was starting so I am praying those people were not hurt seriously in this bear decline. Kind of scary to see so many disappear. Over on SI I have seen the same type thing except the ratio is much worse. Scores of old SI members have simply disappeared off the face of the earth. The scariest thing is that I consider the SI crowd to be much smarter than average when it comes to market events and trading. Just imagine how many regular people got hurt. Good Luck, Lee

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