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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 157.80

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3:59 PM EST

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To: JohnG who wrote (9821)	4/14/2001 9:27:12 PM
From: grinder965	Read Replies (1) of 197318

John, The euros are literally between a rock and a hard place. The cost figures that Caxton noted come from the Q's White Paper. The actual cost to provide gprs data services should be less than that cited because the estimate ($.41) includes the cost to build a new system which will not be the case (Nor will it be the case for those that upgrade from existing cdma systems to 1x like Sprint and VZ whose initial rates will also be lower) Still most of the cost is a result of low throughput thus; the euros cost will be very high. Frankly I don't see how they will be able to make it profitable. Build gprs and they will come is not going to work for the gsm guild in euroland or anywhere else for that matter. The alternative is to step-up the timing of their migration plans for wcdma. But here again there are lots of roadblocks like finalizing a standard, interoperability testing and, no cash to help pay for the infra buildout due to last years binge on spectrum. Incidently when you look at the estimates of cost for the various technologies developed by the Q in their White Paper, I don't believe they include the cost of spectrum. So the estimate of cost to deliver wcdma ($.069) in europe is going to be much greater for 3G than that cited when you factor in amortizing the cost of spectrum. Add the fact that they have very high penetration rates for voice in europe and you've got a recipe for very low growth....in short a disaster in the making. They have no choice but to try and get the european consumer and business customer to ante up and pay very high rates for data service and I don't see it happening. All in all they are in deep kimshee <LOL>

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