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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (13774)4/14/2001 9:40:45 PM
From: BigShoulders  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
Richard
Re: I don't know what Big Shoulders is attempting to do, but what he actually did do was provide an honest comparison to buy-and-hold.

Brinker has not included the CTR 2 results in the monthly valuation of his model portfolios even though it was a recommendation to all newsletter subscribers with recommended % purchase for aggressive and conservative investors.

He has been criticized (correctly so) for not including the CTR trade in his portfolio performance. Because the data is not there has been conjecture and estimation (sometimes slanted to support a point of view) about the performance of Brinker's recommendations. So what I was attempting to do was to provide as true an assessment as I could of the performance of his model portfolios since the call to cash in early 2000 and including the CTR 2 call of last fall.

I wanted to put the numbers out and see what people thought.

Of the 3 cases I ran the buy and hold (potfolio 1) performed the poorest. The 35% stock/65% cash with no CTR 2 case was the best. The 35/65 with CTR 2 was in the middle. No surprise there.

The surprise to me was that even with the disastrous CTR 2 trade, the portfolio 1A case is down "only" 18.6% as compared to the NASDAQ composite down 49.4%. This is a relative outperformance of +30.8%

Re; from geode "Want to add in the TEFQX?"

No

Brinker has so many red flags that this fund is clearly for the most aggressive risk tolerant ".... not appropriate for anyone but the most risk tolerant investor.......represents a very aggressive investment......not for the faint of heart......very high volatility......due to current risk averse stance we are not placing in model portfolios......extraordinary (potential)downside volatility in the event of a market decline of more than 20%...."

As you note Brinker limited any exposure to 5% of one's equity.

This one is clearly limited to a very narrow group of high risk investors.
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