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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: gfs_1999 who wrote (74966)4/15/2001 11:16:24 AM
From: t2  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
PC = Business (boring stuff)
Interactive TV = for FUN (Games,Video Conference, Internet
Video on demand...........)
Wireless devices= everybody will have one like cellular
Nokia will be the winner IMO.


Interesting comments on Nokia and Microsoft.

Nokia has been on a roll and as its competitors like Motorola and Ericson stumbled, it is taking a bigger lead.

Here is my concern about the prospects for Nokia:

Everyone already sees them as the clear winner. As a result they are likely to start facing the same resistance from wireless carriers as Microsoft did when it tried to move its operating system into that sector. The carriers just did not want to be at the mercy of Microsoft. The problem that Nokia will have to overcome is the same. Carriers won't want Nokia to be calling the shots.

What happens?
My guess that they will warm up even to companies like Microsoft to have pocket PCs connected to the wireless web. Maybe even a cell phone and Pocket PC combined at some point.

Who are the prefered customers of wireless carriers? It is the business community. What would a business community want from high speed internet connections?
Send emails; search the web; video conferencing; access Word/Excel applications; company database access.

Given how Internet Explorer has won out; how MSFT Office is the standard ----I would bet that MSFT has a pretty good change to make major moves.(or devices with MSFT applications)

How does a company like Motorola come out of its mess.
Easy, do a deal with MSFT and get a good device with Microsoft software on the market and you win new customers quite easily.

I don't think Nokia is truly in the driver seat as most wireless applications are not widely used or available yet. Nokia's biggest problem may be its success is coming to a peak about 2 years too early.

Bottom line is that the wireless carriers will want to run the show and if they see one company's product get too popular...they will want to give them a harder time pushing products with newer advanced applications.
That is going to be Nokia's hurdle. Right now they are really firing on all cylinder.

Does not look like something to be concerned about right now but down the road there may be problems simply because of their success.

Just a few concerns for the longer term. I am not a wireless expert. Just looking at this from wireless carriers' perspective.
In the short and intermediate term, NOKIA stock should be on a roll. If I had make a bet, I would on Nokia. Just sharing some of my concerns. Actually, I would probably also bet on Microsoft in the wireless device market since Nokia's success will help Microsoft make some inroads into this business. That is, there will less barriers for MSFT software given Nokia's dominance of the market because carriers want it to be a more competitive market.
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BTW-I have a very large position in Nokia right now. MSFT is a smaller holding for me.
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