kash:
"If they sell 30-31M units in Q2."
They'll be lucky to ship 26 million in Q1 as most analysts are suggesting total Q1 market equals 30 million units, 80% of which would give INTC 24 million Q1 units, some 20% fewer than your baseline of 30 million in Q1...Flat to down in Q2 implies 25 million assuming no loss in market share, a hugely incorrect assumption, imho...
P3 and celeron ASP's are falling off a cliff as both are fast becoming obsolete and by the end of Q2, your assumed $175 and $90 ASP for each respectively (including mobiles) will likely turn out to be at least 10% too high and maybe even 25%, if AMD soon introduces its mobile pony...
INTC has no choice but to ramp its P4 as fast as possible but, even if executing perfectly with the P4 ramp (another huge assumption), INTC is at least 1 year away from reversing the current negative trends that are unravelling and that may become apparent to even the most die-hard (i.e Paul Engel) INTC aficiondos with Tuesday's revelations...Even more troubling for INTC than the requirement of perect execution over the next year, is the not impossible prospect, that P4's 1 year out are confronted by an increased price/performance gap owing to evolution over this same interval of palomino and sledgehammer AMD products...
INTC has not recently faced competition in the high end and, to date, they have responded abysmally in the face of such competition...Just too many hurdles in front of the P4 and too much execution risk at INTC to be optimistic about future prospects at INTC...Indeed, in the face of so many hurdles, the odds are increasingly against INTC coming anywhere near last year's revenues of $33.7 billion, and the odds are increasingly favouring the prospect of a loss, perhaps a significant loss, at INTC in Y2001... |
