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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.730-0.7%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Peter J Hudson who wrote (10583)4/15/2001 4:42:02 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) of 34857
 
Pete,

re: New CDG 3G Fact Sheet

This one is new to me (perhaps to you) and obviously pretty recent (dated March). It provides projected launch dates, status, and vendor for cdma2000 for 14 CDMA carriers (contracted or in trial).

cdg.org

<< questions / confusion >>

I'm capable of creating confusion. <g>

<< Saying WCDMA looks better in spec. than 1XRTT is a broad generalization, >>

It is that, but today 1xRTT is standardized at 153 kbps packet data (downlink) in a mobile environment and WCDMA is standardized at 384 kbps in a mobile and pedestrian environment. 1xRTT will bring on peak rates up to 614 kbps (307 on the downlink) when phase 1 IS-2000A completes. All this for those that feel speed is the be all and end all, before technology is available for wireless devices to take advantage of the speeds we will eventually see.

<< If you want to compare vaporware compare WCDMA to 1Xevdv implemented in 5Mhz bandwidth or compare 1XRTT to GPRS >>

That most certainly is not apples to apples.

GPRS is 2.5G network reuse using packet data over circuit data and does not pretend to be anything else, never did.

1xRTT is 3G. Qualcomm says that. CDG says that. IS-95B is 2.5G so they say, so analogous to GPRS and maybe the analogy should be made there in this Orwellian world. They are somewhat analagous in principle.

WCDMA went into standard April 2000. March 2001 rev is now considered baseline. We'll see commercial "launches" (trials) Q1 or Q2 2002 on that rev (and NOT with Nokia handsets). Best compared to 1xRTT or 1xRTT married to 1xEV.

1xEV-DV and HSDPA are really vaporware. We can think about them way in the future. Best we commence the final standard for each before we think about them.

<< The performance of 1X initial deployments will exceed the NTT DoCoMo launch of WCDMA >>

Commercial "launch" (trial) of November R99 draft commences end of month which is pretty analogous to the SKT October 2000 commercial launch (trial) of 1xRTT phase 0 (July 1999 but not IMT-2000 April approved version).

The 2 available SKT handsets using MSM5000 are capable of 150+ kbps on the downlink, not sure about the uplink ... there have been different stories on that.

DoCoMo has stated several times that the 4 handsets they will launch with from 2 manufacturers will support 384 kbps on the downlink from day one and 64 kbps on the uplink.

Qualcomm talks about this being 64 kbps.

We'll have to wait and see on this. Maybe we will have more visibility on this than the Seoul launch/trial/shakedown.

All of the above, of course, is PEAK rate, and the real issue that will take some of the hype out of this is practical user rate, when determined, on a fully optimized network wit QoS applied.

None of the above are yet fully commercialized.

Any idea what practical user rates are on 1xRTT in Seoul? How many subs after 6 months?

<< I believe that GPRS is a stall tactic used by GSM folks to claim an interim high speed data solution while installing the IP backbone and waiting for UMTS. GPRS hype far exceeds anything the CDG has ever produced >>

Its reasonably costed network reuse, not a stall, IMO, and its carrier driven.

GPRS standardization started (very slowly) as part of GSM Phase 2+ right after Phase 2 launched in 1995. Wasn't initially to use an IP backbone (broadband ISDN connection). UMTS was an entirely separate initiative started in 1996. They kind of got funneled together (for compatibility) and we have gone through Release 97 (published mid 98) and we have since been through SMG28, SMG29 and SMG31 iterations which accounts for some of the long delay in deployments.

As for hype ... all 2.5G and 3G technologies have been hyped, and WAP as an enabler along with it, and that is finally catching up. Soon we'll start thinking about what we can expect in real life, and practical user rates, not in the desert, not line of site, while moving, in building, with interference and distortion, with (many) multiple users, etc.

We'll also start thinking about applications that make sense in a mobile (not fixed, not portable, not campus) environment. Those apps are already evolving for the wired web, and will be supplemented by applications for non XDMA technologies (WLAN, PAN).

Best,

- Eric -
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