SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Gottfried who wrote (3363)4/15/2001 11:09:45 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
Semi Abyss - August -September of 1998

was the last one - orders went to zero, then negative. I've been through 2 of them while in the Semi industry.

I believe this Abyss is much, much bigger -
due to extensive vendor financing on telco and server equipment, on top of huge VC and public market financing. Add in massive multiple orders & capacity build up due to Y2K + 'New Economy'

Also important, there will be fewer end products sold which will eat up this glut -

-Much less telco equipment
-Many fewer PCs, until we get high speed wireless (probably Wi-Fi) widespread soon
-PDAs don't use as many chips as PCs
-3G wireless will take 2-4 years

So I guess the glut will last more than a year, instead of 3- 9 months

When it's all over, there will still be a Semi industry & SOX and EMS

Some companies will be sold at 1.5 x to 2.0 x book value.

I believe that when investors realize that the glut will not be gone by September or even the end of this year ( My guess is they realize this in late Spring or this Summer) Semi stocks will see another big step down in valuation
(along with most of the QQQs) from where we are today - taking SOX well below 400, maybe 300.

To sum up what I see - same sort of cycle / wave, but this one is bigger and will last longer and will capsize some boats.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News