Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: StockOperator who wrote (5805)	4/16/2001 2:22:42 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (3) of 52237

StockOperator Appreciate the work you do. Like you, I was caught off guard by the rally. The signs were there, but I believe I let my view influence my picture. I am no longer bearish, but I am mildly bullish. I cannot buy here as stocks are overbought, but see a lot of signs to reign in my bearish posture. Message 15661781 My Take. Weekly Charts Trend is still Bearish with oscillators at oversold. However momentum remains negative but rising to neutral levels showing some signs of bullish divergences. MACD indicators close to giving buy (cross) signal. Daily Charts Trend is neutral to positive; oscillators are overbought and momentum is positive though some indications of bearish divergences. Very close to short-term EMA crossover.(5D/21D) Lots of stocks/indices are at resistance. 30Y yields surprised me similarly - a break above 5.60% and we are in a different game. As the SPX and NAZ retested or broke their Mar2001 levels, bonds sold off. Scenario 1: Weekly period still holds sway and that we back off from current levels. Looking for a downcross from o/bought levels in daily stochastic. 1.1 Retrace/Retest then rise - my favoured pick. 1.2 Fail retest and head to LTCM levels Scenario 2: We breakout. 2.1 Bull trap 2.2 Off to the moon Either way, I definitely do not allow myself to buy o/bought stocks when the weekly trend is down, and would have to wait for a pullback to join in the fun, or a downcross in daily stochastics to sell. watching and waiting. (Long gold stocks and cash) - macavity

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