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Biotech / Medical : AMEV-Applied Molecular Evolution
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To: tuck who wrote (6)4/16/2001 10:22:05 AM
From: rkrw  Read Replies (1) of 164
 
Tuck,
The important bottom line number is 5% royalties. Milestones are good and dandy, but at the end of the day if the product doesn't make it, it will matter little.

I saw amev present at a recent brokerage conference. Mgt and the team was unimpressive (to me).

They projected, imo, unrealistic numax development timelines. The cpd has yet to hit the clinic and they're projecting royalties in 2-3 years. Factor in a one year FDA review and amev (with medi guidance??) is projecting a 1-2 year development timeline. As far as I know, numax won't be in the clinic until the fall/winter rsv season. Timeline should be streamlined but it still seems very aggressive.

The technology is extremely interesting and theoretically much simpler than the other directed evolution players. Make simple changes to the compound structure with dramatic changes in potency. I'd think they'd be in a real sweet spot with the surging interest in antibody development.

I'm lukewarm on the business plan. Plenty of time to change their plan, but I'm not too keen on companies with strategies of outlicensing exclusively. Very few big winners have emerged this way. Take a page from abgx, outlicense the technology like crazy and start building an internal pipeline.

I do think the stock is worth a position on potential applicability in the antibody field, but if they don't start signing up partners or getting compounds into the clinic soon (next 1-2 years) I'd start getting worried.
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