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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (10960)4/16/2001 11:43:11 AM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (1) of 12823
 
The enthusiasm for building infrastructure has certainly cooled dramatically. The arguments for installed plant are at first glance compelling: why not use all that sunk cost and generate revenue from it? The basic reason is that for many all except the local carriers it does not make sense and even for them it is no panacea. Quest has said that their broadband DSL has grown faster than they expected and is a profitable segment of their business. Too bad for anyone else who wants to compete for DSL if they don't control the local lines.

Sprint reports that they have already reached 25% market share for BB in the initial markets they have entered. That far exceeded their expectations. It doesn't look to me that nobody wants the service even at this early time in the evolution of content. While it is true that there is no compelling reason for customers to give up their boob tubes for yet to be realized video on demand and other broadband content, there is still a large market of internet users who would love to have a reliable broadband solution.

Why will OFDM take off and compete effectively against DSL and cable? We won't know for sure if it will stand up to all of it's claims however promising it appears but if it does then OFDM will be lower cost to install and lower cost to maintain and will provide a minimum of 1 Mb (vendors claim around 3 mb burst rates and 1.5 sustainable. IoSpan says that much higher rates are possible , , , I think that 1.0-1.5 is sufficient to be competitive with DSL and cable. There is another issue with FWBB that can of concern - latency for first response can be several milliseconds. FBB suppliers such as Nextnet and Breezecom say they will have this worked out sufficiently in time for commercial deployments).

This technology makes sense the same way it makes sense for PCS cellular. At the time QCOM was trying to drum up support for CDMA technology the nay sayers were knocking it down as being too expensive and unproven. Sure it was theoretically neat but it could never be made to work well in the real world. And PCS phones and head-end installations would just be way too expensive to build. Qualcomm showed nice pretty charts about how the new technology could cover more customers and how the costs would work out to be low enough to justify the expenditure. It was a very hard sell. But look what has happened; PCs has become extremely popular and arguments about developing customer demand proved to be false. I think the same dynamics will work for OFDM.
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