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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 77.42

+4.6%

Nov 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: Rob C. who wrote (51480)	4/16/2001 5:40:13 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) of 77398

Possibly there has been a program to get information of this nature out. Lots of rumors swirling. But possibly not. I am stunned by the size of the inventory charge. 2.5 B$ is equal to the entire "huge" inventory pile held 3 months ago. Basicly, wiping the slate clean. Residual inventory level will tell lots about the state of the off-books channels. With the size of these charges, watch out for negative cash flow. Revised income stmt guess... Less commentary, just the numbers... Rev: -30% from 6.8 B$ = 4.76 B$ 4.8 B$ Revenue 2.2 B$ COGS ------ 2.6 B$ GM (55%) <-- versus my previous guess of 2.6 B$ Close for all the wrong reasons Opex 3.1 B$ GAAP <-- same opex as Q1, forget efficiencies ----- (0.5) GAAP earnings <-- versus previous +0.52-tax (math fixed) Adj. to Pro-Forma 1.0 B$ restructuring charge 0.2 B$ avoided In Process R&D writedown (0.3 B$) excluded investment gains ------ 0.4 B$ = $0.06 / share <-- versus prior guess 0.62 B$ - tax Spot PE at $12/share = 50 Smart money may not want to buy this news. John.

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