My thoughts? I haven't done a whole lotta market thinking. Damn tax thing. You got this problem in Canuckistan?
Anyway, I think you may be placing too much emphasis on the notion that the one-more-push idea has reached consensus. We'll know pretty soon, though; if the Sicko news get bought by the end of the day, then I'd say more bouncing is in order. My problem lately is that the market hasn't been trending downward, and I really don't want to fight it. I just want to bite the middle out of it if it looks to break down again.
There's no doubt in my mind that it's time for Old Eco to take another turn in the blender. What part of "we're in a recession" don't people understand? Nice month-long reprieve there. Time to get back to business.
Fund flows are key here. Many chased the market up last week; when the little flurry ends, they'll turn back negative again.
It felt great not to have the market open last Friday. So much so that I decided it might be a good thing to take a little break, so I stepped a little further onto the sidelines today. I'm afraid I've lost some of my edge lately by trying to anticipate too many of the wiggles. That's your game, not mine. <g>
I disagree on the low likelihood that we are repeating 1929-32. Everything I see says that, from the point of view of the financial markets, this is 1931 all over again.
My method for determining when trends can fail is fairly simple. A bull market, or a bear market, is like a fire. It burns as long as it has a fuel source. It doesn't spontaneously stop burning in the middle of a log; it runs until it is burned completely. The fuels for a bull market are undervaluation, pessimism, easy money, and earnings growth. The fuels for a bear market are overvaluation, optimism, and tight money. Until we are truly undervalued and the majority of bulls are converted to bears, fuel remains, and the fuel will burn eventually.
Got marshmallows?
BC |
