I see... now you're sounding more sensible to me. Yes, of course business/technology is always changing, and you never know when MSFT will all of a sudden be a has-been. Again, I'm not a fan of technology which is easily displaced, though I would argue that when a new technology does come along, it has a good chance of being developed from within current tech companies, as they have the large R&D budgets. Please do not mistake me for someone who thinks we should buy technology companies at any price. I'm no such person. I even said earlier that I would never even consider CSCO until it's below $10/share. I dislike most FO stocks... too expensive in my book, especially as the networks are limited by last mile solutions... expansion pace will be much slower going forward, at least until we see Fiber directly to the home. I'm not insane. I just think Semi equip stocks are very, very cheap at this level... that seems rational to me? One of my favorites, LTXX is at a P/E of 10. Is that rational for a company still growing quite strongly?? I don't think so. Sure they'll see slowness this year, but we'll be greatly rewarded a year from now as semi growth picks back up... and it most certainly will. Semis are necessary, and the only thing replacing them near term will be new semi technology created by those very firms. Sure, some new firms will show up and others will disappear... the game for investors is to stay one step ahead. Why do you think I like AAPL? Because I see it as improving market share and coming up w/ incredible technology to displace current appliances, etc. I value business creativity above just about anything else when I look at management. Jobs, IMO, is one of the most creative minds corporate America will ever have the pleasure of knowing. I dislike PALM because I see the company as stagnant and absolutely boring and uncreative. They probably all wear suits to work and act like intellects, but lack any shred of creativity or ingenuity. Hope I'm making sense...
- Zen |
