I still own MRVC at much higher prices wherein I figured (wrongly) it was a growth-value play. And now I'm hesitant to come out and say it might be suitable as a typical value investment candidate that might appear on this thread.
I'm down quite a bit from my purchase prices on MRVC, and it's difficult to see how or if ever I will recoup my losses on this one. Which brings me to an interesting tactic on selling that most people I will guess (I have no facts) would employ in this situation: that reasoning would be that if I hold on to it I have to constantly endure the pain of seeing my mistake with this loser (-g- or seeing that I'm the loser with this mistake), and be reminded that I can see no hope of breaking even on it. So the reasonable or common approach would be to sell it and move on.
However, I look at it differently. For MRVC, I believe I now have to try to look at my purchase prices and unrealized losses as an irrelevancy. I calculate a reasonable downside to MRVC to now be about 5 1/2. Given that optics/fiber arena will still likely be a growth area and that MRVC has several incubator companies (LMNE, others), I'd guess MRVC could recover substantially in a better market environment, and that environment might show itself within a couple of years, maybe sooner. I'd bet on a tripling in price or more - to 15 or better from the low. There could "easily" (he said -g-) be a triple from today's price of 6+. Since I'm always looking for stocks that might double in a couple of years, MRVC at its current price fits my criterion. It seems to be what I'm looking for in a stock at its current price, so I don't want to convince myself to sell it now. Even if I have been wrong on MRVC all along. (sigh) And even if a trippling in price won't get me anywhere near breakeven (SIGH).
Another issue then follows that conclusion. Which is: why or why not add to position at these prices to lower my average purchase cost? I'm wrestling with this now regarding MRVC. MRVC is a company with cash, resources, revenue, but no earnings derived from revenue. To me, its business model is still untested, and I'm now beat up and not sure I have the courage to buy more.
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I'll add MRVC though to the thread list if you and a 2nd person here say that you guys bought it as a value stock or consider it now to be a value stock.
Paul S. |
