P, my logic is a more than a little shaky here, because it is stuck in reverse, and I simply do not have all the facts.
Here goes though.All just my opinion, of course. They have probably had at least a one year fallback position for quite awhile, and that would have been to keep just the two remaining affiliates - neither a tremendously big cash drain + a skeleton crew for the rest of the company + the royalties. That would most likely have been at least slightly cash flow positive and would delay the day of reckoning until the heavy duty senior notes were due ( a couple years). Simple arithmetic should have informed them of the need to do that, and yet they did not. Not yet. So I have pretty much assumed they have at least the short term financial bases pretty clearly covered or they would have closed iNEXTV's doors almost completely by now.But by keeping the thrifty AENTV and TV1 (which they do not provide capital to other than percentage ownership purchases as best I understand it)they would still have a footprint in the potential future of streaming. The key to this scenario is the royalty stream. If that should dry up suddenly...for whatever reason....it would probably be curtains.
Man, I am way past highly discouraged...once I decided to hold AXC against all immediate evidence, I just stopped agonizing about it. Much anyway...lol. Though I do think they have a far better chance than 1 in 10 of surviving, to be honest I have written it off to zero in my own emergency financial plans, and long since done a sombre self critical postmortem of my 6 year Ampex investing psychosis.
They could go belly up or reorganize in a hurry, but I am of the opinion they will live to fight a couple more years at least. But believe me, I have NO hard facts to back that up. Their balance sheet, as best I can tell, can probably not handle many or any more unpleasant surprises or serious miscalculations.As for the stock price I simply continue to hope that someday I awaken to a plesant surprise. Have no idea what that surprise might be. |
