Paul. One of the classic rules of thumb
I was taught by my W.S. mentors was, "The most bullish think a market can do is go up on bad news".
This market has been doing exactly that for over a week. And still everybody is fighting it, trying to short it, confused, standing aside or even calling the market names.(g)
Yes, this is a Bear Market rally. But my read from 10 days ago on the very first day was that it's a good one and well worth trading from the long side:
Message 15628000
"THIS RALLY IS FOR REAL!
IMO, we're not looking at a 1 or 2 day wonder this time.
Been looking at the internals they are VERY powerful. This IS NOT a flash in the pan guys and gals(g).
Use stops and stay alert. But DON'T sit on your hands!
"Briefing.com suspects that short covering was also fueled by an expectation of a weak March employment report tomorrow that would raise the odds of an inter-meeting easing by the Fed (perhaps as early as tomorrow if the data are decidedly weak)..."
"As strikingly positive as the A/D line was at the NYSE and Nasdaq, the degree to which up volume swamped down volume was even more striking..."
"At the NYSE, up volume finished ahead of down volume by nearly a 7-to-1 margin and the advantage was a whopping 25-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq..."
ALL rallies begin with short covering. It's the volume, volume ratios, breadth, tick, trin, last hour action and many other internals 've been reviewing that distinguish the real McCoy from the wipsaw.
In the money management game, the above volume ratios are considered very potent confirmation of a rally. The kind of rally with staying power folks.
Do I know how high this will go before it tops out?
HELL NO!! And neither does anybody else...YET.
Sure we can talk about 10/3 or 10/5 (as Bull and I have been doing) but those levels are NOT written in stone.
Bottom line, this is a powerful lift off and I like what I see. Will probably add to my 4 recent buys on dips.
Remember. If you want to make money in this game one of the keys is BE flexible. DON'T get married to being a Bear OR being a "perma bull". Both points of view have their time in the forefront but then you have to adjust. Hanging onto a point of view too long can result in either actual losses or high "opportunity costs".
So throw out emotional committments to the market, stocks or cash. They are suits of financial clothing to wear and change out of as as market circumstances dictate.
Isopatch"
*Footnote, 4/18/01: IMO, one of the strangest things about these web threads is when a professional investor shows up on a thread nobody believes it, even after you show them over and over that you're the real deal. That's one of the reasons I've been posting more here than on that other thread. You, Don, SO, Chris, Allan and some others here are well worth reading vs only one or 2 on SD. Just too many sleeping minds over there. |
