By L3_Aka_L3 on Tuesday, April 17, 2001 - 10:48 pm: Edit
... As I said, I expected a wave 4 counter trend rally. I am simply amazed however that they can do it in the face of horrible news. CSCO news alone should have put us down 100 versus the up we got plus tomorrow.
I never claimed to be a financial genius but aren't these earnings going the wrong way???? -g-...
Intel Corp. - Santa Clara, Calif.
1st Quar March 31:
2001 2000
Revenues $6,677,000,000 $7,993,000,000
Net income a 485,000,000 b 2,696,000,000
Avg shrs (basic) 6,721,000,000 6,683,000,000
Avg shrs (diluted) 6,899,000,000 6,995,000,000
Shr earns (basic)
Net income a .07 b .40
Shr earns (diluted)
Net income a .07 b .39
a. Includes $75 million in charges for purchased in-process research and development and $585 million of amortization and write-offs of goodwill and other acquisition-related costs. Excluding these, the company earned 16 cents a share.
b. Includes acquisition-related costs. Excluding these, the company earned 43 cents a share. Also includes a reversal of previously accrued taxes that improved earnings by 9 cents a share.
==============================================
Industrial Production being double the expected value and the first climb in 5 months was the excuse for today's move up depite the gloomy news out of CSCO. CPI came in right on the money and the other economic reports were non-events. The Industrial Production report raised hopes that excess inventory had finally been worked off and that new production was ramping up again.
Sorry, but this is just a typical bear rally and options expiration games as far as I am concerned. CSCO has more inventory coming out the wazzoo than the E-trade commercial dude had money coming out his. -g- CAT also showed that no one is buying anything and I will take the word of corporate earnings numbers on a SEC form than CNBC's bullish slant of one economic report.
Don't get me wrong, I have stated all along that this rally could run to 2200 NDX but I am not going to hold too many longs until MSFT is done and expiration is over. As of tonight's close, I have one LEAP call, One common stock holding and nothing else. I will buy back in next week when either I get a signal or it is clear sailing on the news front. I still plan on shorting this rally as 2200 or a harder sell signal around less news events hits.
Note tonight I put my real charts up. Again, these signals can turn themselves off and are automated on a formula I developed a while ago. Because they are automated, they do not take into account news, formations and since they have an average component of a Momentum cocktail, if the next day or two after a buy or sell signal moves hard the other way, it will cancel ( just erase) that signal like it never happened. You must use stops if you try to follow this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
With summer here and my "honey do" list longer than a cross country freeway, it is easier if you can see what I see so I don't have to try and explain things in words so much.
INTC news was not as bad as expected and futures are on fire. QQQ was trading on island for 43 1/2, NDX futures are lock limit up and SP00s are up 20 as I type this. GLOBEX triggers are negative so you can subtract about 3 points off the SP00s value for the expected pop in the SPX but I doubt it matters much.
I have first resistance on the NDX around 1750-1800 on the upper tine of that fork, then horizontal resistance at the 2000 area from the low of December and the highs of March then the one I expect to hold, the downward sloping yellow dashed channel line around 2200. I plan on shorting heavily if we get that high.
ADX still has room to run but I won't be adding longs until MSFT is done. Tomorrow we get IBM but I expect they will do OK. CA reported good things and since IBM has a services division of their own, I guess they can pull some good earnings from there. Also IBM had a new server come out in January so they aren't competing with their old equipment on Ebay like SUNW, CSCO etc.
Not much else to report. The mania lives on, ride the wave just be careful and I wouldn't be holding when MSFT reports Thursday unless you are boxed. With it's high weighting, it will be able to move things REAL fast either up or down.
Interesting side note, I looked at open contracts on the QQQ tonight while talking to Don, there are a TON more calls at strike 40 and 45 than puts. If they let this run up past 45, I have to think they are trying to get called out on purpose.
Good Luck,
Lee |
