By L3_Aka_L3 on Wednesday, April 18, 2001 - 07:19 am: Edit
Does anyone notice a pattern here? -ggg- Not these are coupon passes which are permanent, not repos that are temporary...
Fed did a $531 million coupon pass - Mar 13 5:44 PM ET
Fed coupon pass adds $710 mln in permanent reserves - Mar 27 11:39 AM ET
Fed coupon pass adds $799 mln in permanent reserves - Mar 30 12:00 PM ET
Fed coupon pass ups permanent reserves $1.392 bln - Apr 03 11:42 AM ET
Fed's coupon pass adds $742 million bank reserves - Apr 05 11:37 AM ET
Fed says adding reserves via 2nd coupon pass $444 million + $530 million
- Apr 10 11:57 AM ET
Fed coupon pass adds $702 mln in permanent reserves - Apr 16 11:26 AM ET
Fed says coupon pass adds $949 mln in reserves - Apr 17 11:53 AM ET
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This morning's earnings thus far......
PFE beat by 2 cents reporting 33 versus the 31 expected. Guiding down slightly. Concnesus was 1.30 for the year and PFE is saying now 1.27 - 1.30. 33 Cents is per Bloomberg but CBS marketwatch is saying it was 32 cents.
TYC reporting ahead of schedule 65 cents versus 61 expected. Cash Flow over 1 Bil on 8.9 Bil in Salesversus 7.07 Bil last year.
COF met at 66 cents
AOL cash 23 cents beating by 3 cents but net was loss of 31 cents with cash flow of 651 mil
IP only pulled in a nickel versus last years 60 cents but that was the expected number on higher sales of 6.9Bil versus 6.4 Bil last year
JPM reports 70 cents versus 66 expected.
TLAB reported 29 versus expected 30 cents and is to cut 500 jobs.
Still waiting -ticker and expected earnings- on AMD (34), KO (34), UAL (-4.23), AMR(-29) and GM (24), KLAC (45). IBM will report after the close (99). I don't expect anything bad out of IBM. They are experts at playing with the numbers to make them look good.
I haven't had time this morning to rip any of these reports apart ot see if they are playing games.
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SUNW announces they will be lowering prices on older servers 16% per Bloomberg TV
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Thanks to John Madarasz at CFZ for this...
Stockmarket Cycles update for Tuesday, April 17th.
On our telephone update of April 10th, We said that the Dow Jones Industrial Average had reached its 2/3 Speed Resistance Line from the January 2000 high close to the March 2001 low close. We went on to say that the Dow should find important resistance within 2-3%, at the most, of that day's close. The close that day was 10,102.74 and that would yield a maximum price of around 10,406 on a closing basis. We must admit that the fact that the market did not reach an apparent high in the time window we recognized last week for three potential turning point patterns causes us to be very wary of the short term bearish case. We must constantly remind ourselves and our subscribers of the benchmark 10 day Trading Index reading above 1.50 registered just one month ago. Historically, over the past 40 years, if there is to be a new low registered after such a reading, it occurs within four weeks of the oversold reading. The fact that the market has failed to move to a new low within the four week period makes a strong historic argument that a potentially important bottom has been seen. And yet ---- we continue to view the important breaks in price that occurred on both the New York Composite Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average as very important technical signs. As we pointed out over the past few weeks, those important price breaks argue strongly that a secular bear market has just been confirmed. If that is the case, it is foolhardy to be looking for an important bottom.
Here is an amazing flash bulletin from Jim Stack's latest newsletter. Jim writes that, based on the latest 10 Qs and 10 Ks coming in their door, the NASD research department calculates that cumulative earnings for all 4800 domestic stocks traded on the Nasdaq exchange have fallen to $8,934,115-down 67% from year-end levels. In short, earnings for many of these companies are falling faster than their stock prices, and the current P/E ratio on the Nasdaq Composite is 288-1.
We took a long hard look at the projection charts this afternoon. What we can say with confidence is, if prices hold up at current levels or higher for three more days, significantly higher projections will be given. Until or unless that happens, the prices we have seen so far can all be explained by shorter-term projections. As this update is being delivered, the S&P stock index futures are up well over 1%, implying at least significant intra-day strength tomorrow. According to our projections, a price as high as 1,223.50 on the June S&P contract could be justified by shorter-term projections. Should prices move above that level intra-day, there would be a strong implication that significantly higher price projections were being given.
On a technical basis, the Trading Index readings are overbought enough to justify at least a short-term market top. TRIN 5 close below 4.00 for the second consecutive day, our own New 10 TRIN moved back down to 0.81, and the Open 10 TRIN closed at 0.94, the lowest reading since late January and, before that, the lowest reading since November 8th, just two days after the important high in the S&P cash. We must remain aware that if indeed this is the beginning of a new bull market, as unbelievable as that may seem, the Trading Index readings will remain overbought for long periods of time and not be overly significant. We seriously doubt the market is in a configuration like that, but at this point in our career, almost nothing surprises us anymore.
Mutual fund switchers- Rydex switchers are 100% in the Ursa Fund, Fidelity Select switchers are 100% in Select American Gold. All mutual fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and call each market evening.
Stock-index futures traders, it appeared as if we were fortunate because the market missed our stop by only two ticks at the high of the day. As it turns out, if Globex prices carry over into tomorrow's action, we would have been far better off to have been stopped out at today's high. Tomorrow, place your stops 4.20 above the opening price. If you are stopped out, you may reshort only if there is an hourly or half hourly reading below 1,184.00 on the S&P cash. If that should occur, cover that short sale on any hourly or half hourly cash reading above 1,192.75.
There are no new projections for the XAU or for bonds. That's it for now. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow
stockmarketcycles.com
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Leading Indicators will be releas3d this morning and expected to drop .3%
Trade balance expected to show imbalance drop of 33. Note our trade deficit has plummeted since 98 |
