Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (5915)	4/18/2001 10:23:58 AM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (1) of 52237

The way I see this playing out is that the belief that we are near the bottom of the downturn is strong, hence rally mode for up to a few months is developing. The problem is that once electricity and gasoline demand ramp up in the summer (especially talking California) then prices spike in these commodities. In fact I don't see how California can possibly get enough electricity for the summer, so something has to give. Will server farms be shut down so that critical resources are not hurt? What else will happen? As an example, if the A/C is shut off at chicken farms, the chickens will die within an hour. Maybe California will be known as the Dead Chicken Society. Sorry I couldn't resist, being an ex-California person, and my apologies to the movie of a somewhat similar name. Now I know that the world economy won't crash due to the death of millions of chickens, but this is just an example. The real point is that right now interest groups in California are pressing for exclusion from blackouts to save their businesses in what everyone can see is going to be disaster. When the seriousness of the energy situation hits, then investors will realize this downturn isn't going away soon. Economic growth requires growth in energy (even if it may be only slight growth), so any attempts to recover will get smacked by high energy prices. The only real recovery will come when industries and consumers have found ways to reduce their energy demand. I don't see anyone wanting to do this and I see months or years of finger pointing before we even get serious about solving this problem with real long-term solutions that will stand the test of time. This is all my opinion, but it is becoming so obvious that I don't even think this is an opinion any more.

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