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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.91

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75340)	4/18/2001 11:59:26 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Haim, we are setting ourselves up for a major recession starting the summer or Fall of 2002 with this cut. I do not see this as a required cut at all, it is going to rekindle our trade deficit that was just getting a little" under control, and by next June or so, the feds will have to start and raise rate, at that time we will still have over capacity, but we will also have an exhausted consumer. The only salvation is if the tax cut expected goes into something like $500/$1000 tax credit or rebate equally to each tax payer. If they tamper with the tax rate, we are cooked. In the meanwhile, however, after we go back down a little here, expect a powerful bull at least into next April (I still think we are going down into August first, however). Zeev

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