If MSFT gives any indication of a turn in PCs, tech could take off like a restart at the Daytona 500. I'm not expecting that to happen YET, but it would be a huge, huge psychological lift for hundreds of other companies.
Greenie's move today is still sinking into my brain. Wow. The Fed is showing no restraint at all in reacting to this vanishing order backlog in tech, among other things. No "measured response," or whatever. Just relentless coupon passes followed by rate cuts.
A 50 bp move in May may well finally kill this bear market, the first time I've been able to envision an end to this. This bear market is badly, badly wounded after that shot today.
And a side effect of this, and I think this is really important, are the CEOs of all those companies that are about to announce more layoffs. This just has to give them pause. Do we really want to lose our experienced people, people we've trained ourselves and who know our culture?
Yes, our order backlog is bare, but maybe we should wait another month or so before doing anything drastic.
And that, too, is how psychology turns.
PB |
