Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45559)	4/18/2001 7:49:40 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (3) of 70976

... investors are seeing the rosiest possible future, and buying. Today was partly short covering, but mostly some of that 2T in sideline money coming off the sidelines. Panic buying today, just like we've seen panic selling, repeatedly, over the last year. We're thinking alike ... I see one more trip to the bottom of the well ahead. Intel's right boot and the Fed's left boot gave us one huge kick in the ass today, but it doesn't appear to have held strongly. The action recently looks like a classic bear rally. I'm still pretty sure we go on to new lows (that's why I didn't cover my shorts today), but I have no idea how long or how high the market goes first. I agree with that also, except I'm not sure we'll see new lows - just significantly lower than current prices. Remember when I said something about two-to-three-week sentiment cycles? I see this clearly as a point of (relative) maximum optimism. I think other news - bad numbers from other companies, CA electric woes resurfacing, or whatever - will punch this rally in its tender glass jaw. We need a LOT more reinforcement for the expectations to hold up. I'll revisit this in early May ... about the time the "euphoria" cycle should return from manic to depressive. - Mitch

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