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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: mitch-c who wrote (45564)	4/18/2001 10:34:28 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) of 70976

" I'll revisit this in early May ... about the time the "euphoria" cycle should return from manic to depressive." Merrils mcCabe says initial peak of mid-high 2000's by the end of may. Ray James, Bloch says three months and maybe 3000. My take is that Dont Fight the Tape was defeating Dont fight the Fed until last week. Now they are both in sync. Its a powerful twosome to go against as i found out on the trip down from 5K. I urge the bears to be careful here. It took a year for naz to go from 5150 to 1650 when these two forces were aligned. A quarter of the way back from the abyss is about 2500. That is my first target and i think we will get there quickly. I know its arbitrary but mentally i have divided the trip back to 5100(not a certainty for sure) into sections---2500-3400-4300-5150. My bullish goal is to see 3400 sometime this year although I expect year end close to be lower. 4300 sometime late in 2002. Beyond that I dont project.

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