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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (123825)4/18/2001 11:47:44 PM
From: schrodingers_cat  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
Re Broadband: >It is not expensive around here for residential use. I believe it is about $50/month. A separate phone line and one's ISP
monthly cost is only $10 less.


I think $50/month is quite expensive for the average family. Some things people use the internet for, like e-mail and instant messaging, work quite well on ordinary dial-up service. I don't think voice over IP will matter because long distance voice is already quite cheap. I don't think voice over IP would save enough to justify the cost of the connection

I think multimedia will eventually be the killer app for broadband. Napster has shown the way. People like on demand access to audio and video entertainment, if the price is right. The trouble is, the right price may be quite low. Another problem is that the broadband connection would have to be hooked up to the TV in the family room rather than the computer in the study for this to really take off. It'll take a few years for people to reorganize their homes for this.

Another possibility is some sort of on-line video game craze, but I don't see parents paying $50/month so Jr. can blast his friends to bits in high definition.

More likely is some sort of on-line access to education. School lessons or college lectures distributed, on demand, over broadband connections. People would be willing to pay for this but it'll take years to get the education system to accept it.

Bottom line: I don't see anything which will drive roll out of broadband over the next year or so. I think it will be several years and some price reductions before it becomes widespread. Which brings me to Moore's law. If broadband costs fall along with Moore's law (I'm not sure if this is true) then in two years time broadband may be available for about the same cost as dial-up. I guess that installation would still be costly but the price of the equipment should drop.
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