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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (96019)	4/19/2001 12:16:09 AM
From: Andrew G.	Read Replies (3) of 436258

Heinz, you have yet to commit to a calender end point prediction for this bubble bursting. Nor have you stated any statistical thresholds. My guess is that you have convinced yourself of something that will happen without really being able to quantify what it is your looking for. "The Law of Large numbers" is a statistical rule of thumb that's used for quantifiable targets. How large can the numbers get, Heinz ? I keep challenging you, not to be a nuisance but to try to get you to rethink what you have been saying all along as if there is some magical end point where the "bubble bursts". You are such a bright and knowledgeable guy that I think you are capable of seeing a flaw in your own argument if it is pointed out correctly. I may not be the one to shine the light in a convincing enough way for you and others here, but this is coming from someone is very much agrees with how you characterize the economic conditions. I differ strongly on the long term impact and especially the short term conditions. We are not heading for a bubble burst. - Yet credit debt will continue to escalate and amaze us all. - Yet housing will continue to inflate, if not hyperinflate. Unemployment will still be low. Look, it could even double right now and it still wouldn't be as bad as some recessions. We have unemployment in Minnesota at 3.4% That's right, despite the 1yr tumble in the markets and big lay offs locally from ADCT, Honeywell, Fingerhut, you name it. And it went up only a tiny bit (.2%) from last qtr. We could double unemployment and employers might even enjoy having a greater pool to choose from. BTW, while we have been debating this matter the markets have been rallying. I hope you have taken advantage of that too because I believe this irrational exuberance will continue for awhile, in its predictably volatile way. Mark my words, NO BUBBLE BURST IN USA. If I'm wrong I'll be first to admit. The stock market is not the economy. And the 20% rich still have 80% of the assets. They will not go poor. They may milk the poor to regain lost wealth but they will not go poor. REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH: that is what I would characterize as the unfolding process ahead.

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