Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 228.68

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3:59 PM EST

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To: advocatedevil who wrote (45444)	4/19/2001 1:17:29 AM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) of 70976

AD, I just got your post now, was off-line for a while. Regarding Abelson, I don't recall him ever bullish on anything, as somebody else suggested, a perma-bear. One thought on that, if the market heads higher mostly on momentum, and is able to hold up, maybe that will cause the fundamentals for semis to improve quicker. For example, the wealth effect could cause consumers to spend, and there may be a pent up demand of things they want to buy (hopefully PC's and gadgets). Likewise, companies could sense the economy is turning and start ordering in advance a bit. I guess this is why it is so hard to time the market. The whole thing is driven by human behavior, which is often irrational. And that is one reason why these extreme bears (e.g. Nasdaq 1000 prediction) may be totally wrong. I hope so anyway. John

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