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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Andrew G. who wrote (96170)4/19/2001 11:22:47 AM
From: Mike M2  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Andrew, there are too many variables and psychological factors at play to predict precisely - watch the US $ . My guess is many will learn the meaning of tough love by years end. Sir Isaac Newton was caught up in the South Sea bubble speculative orgy and is reputed to have said ( after major losses) " I can calculate the movement of the stars but I cannot calculate the madness of men." A relevant quote from John Kenneth Galbraith " As already so often emphasized, the collapse in the stock market in the autumn of 1929 was implicit in the speculation that went before. The only question concerning that speculation was how long it would last. Sometime sooner or later, confidence in the short -run reality of increasing stock values would weaken. When this happened, some people would sell, and this would destroy the reality of increasing values. Holding for an increase would be meaningless; the new reality would now become falling prices. There would be a rush to sell, pellmell, to unload. This was the way past speculative orgies had ended . It was the way the end came in 1929. It is the way speculation will end in the future. " JKG " The Great Crash, 1929 p.174 Each person has a different threshold for tough love -sooner or later many will hit the sell button. Mike
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