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To: Lucretius who started this subject	4/19/2001 12:28:36 PM
From: smallcapmaven	Read Replies (1) of 436258

CMOS... The new estimates are looking for a loss through 2002...That was my prediction...The stock remains solid due to the mo mo players IMO...These people will be washed out as the stock will likely trough now in December 2001 as opposed to the spring as previously expected... MSDW changed their outlook to a LOSS for 2001 of $0.30 and a LOSS in 2002 of $0.05 assuming a recovery in the second half of 2002... I have changed my numbers from a gain of $.10 in 2001 to a loss of $0.87 and 2002 to a loss of $.40...Since the forward visibility is reduced and margins have started to fall off a cliff there will be a significant reduction in Book value in the next 2 years IMO... New revenue forecasts have dropped significantly from $123M to $50M sequencially...This represents much more than an "inventory glut" IMO and represents the dramatic shift in need...IMO CMOS is behind the curve and an obsolete company...There will be need of major restructuring at CMOS to develop products that are in demand at a reasonable cost...The revunue has slowed to 1997 levels...This is alarming!!! nasdaq.com Revenue in the Q ended April 1997 was $43.4M with a gain of $0.15 per share...With the outlook and huge losses coming this stock would be fairly valued IMO at $12 a share... finance.yahoo.com GSCO came out with a report that is way too high but they have consistantly been high...IMO they will downgrade after the losings report... biz.yahoo.com The $12 a share price is so generous because of the $200M in liquidity that the company has over the $90M for 1997...This capital can be used to reposition the company to profitability in the future...

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