Haim. I oftentimes am amazed by people who call themselves investors (and I am talking with you, not about you Haim), and can be so positive that individual stocks, or the market in general, is going to go up or down depending on his/her wishes ... especially when they show so little evidence of serious reading or study.
Based on what I read and study everyday, all day, I do not see even the smallest possibility that we are in anything but a bear market rally right now. I could be wrong, but I have not been fundamentally wrong about anything in the stock or futures markets in the last four years ... and as dedicated and as thorough as I am in my efforts, I do not believe I am wrong now. Of course, eventually, I will make a major call that is wrong ... but I am convinced it is not now - we will see.
Everyday, I read the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Morgan Stanley, the Contrary Investor, John Murphy and Bill Fleckenstein (a real perma-bear). Weekly, I read The Economist, Business Week and Barron's. Plus coursework (Larry Williams Inner Circle Workshop), investing books and many article URL posts from this thread ... and also, I have CNBC on all day long - muted - what a bunch of sell-side crap to screw the retail investor there ... I mean absolute bullshit.
Overall, it is difficult to conclude anything other than the fact that we are headed into a moderate to serious recession ... but it is NOT here yet ... maybe it will not really arrive until late fall or early 2002. We have a manufacturing recession, and we have a technology recession, but we do not have a recession in the overall economy YET ... And when YET arrives, or about six months before YET arrives, the NYSE, the S&P 500 and the non-technology Nasdaq will plummet. And do you think that they might do just a little bit more damage to technology stocks ... you know they will ...
Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely
on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for
your investment decisions.
Ken Wilson |
