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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: JH who wrote (75510)	4/19/2001 4:00:13 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) of 99985

<<Six months ago, your forecast of a recession would have been prescient. Today, it's nothing more than a rear-view mirror.>> ... not quite right. JH ... nine months ago I was forecasting a recession <g> ... it is slow in getting here, but it is on the way (in my opinion) ... <<The key to forecasting the health of the economy rests with understanding the term structure of the credit markets, whether it's the Treasurys, Agencies, or Corporates.>> ... I believe that typically you are correct (at least since world war II), but this is different, more like the late 1800s through the 1930s ... it will take a lot longer to cure our troubles economically than it has in recent years ... it takes time to cure a mess like this ... and we have not yet reached the overall recession itself .. Ken Wilson

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