| you may well be right...note, the LatAm periphery is beginning to groan more and more due to the ongoing Argentinian crisis...it has now become a Brazilian crisis too. it may not mean anything to WS, which is now in a state of "euphoria" (Pisanti said that, not me), but i take it as another sign that the global slowdown is worsening...in the meantime, the US financial system is clearly dangerously unstable...the market volatility (it doesn't matter in which direction the market is volatile)increases more and more. i can't help thinking it is building towards some sort of crescendo. anyone looking at a money supply chart should be able to realize that something isn't right. btw, i take the recent dollar slide as a sign of two things (provided it's really the start of a trend and not just another correction): one, the Euro carry trade is forced to unwind, and two, the Fed has managed to finally deal confidence a real blow...forget the reaction of the stock market for a moment, since the current crop of money managers that has known only the mania is not exactly the brightest bunch (in case someone thinks i'm unduly arrogant, the evidence is paraded on TV, day in and day out). the dollar is far more important a gauge...next time someone from the administration comes out to 're-affirm' the 'strong dollar policy' (what, pray tell, is that, actually? part of the 'free market'?) and the dollar reacts by heading further south, we'll know it's TILT time. |
