We're starting to think alike, which is really scary.<g>
Bear-market rally or not, I expect the Fed to nurture it for all it can get. Everything was pointed lower Monday, then Greenie stomped on the gas pedal again.
Naz up a lot this month, 'cept CSCO, so we're due for some selling any time. MSFT, PMCS saying some nice things.
SUNW, NT still flying blind. Storage stocks looking healthy again.
That Fed statement the other day, the part that jumped out at me was growing concern about consumer spending because of reduced equity wealth. Sure seems plain enough. And Greenie has the yield curve pointed up now, instead of flat or inverted. The yield on the 30-year popped above the 200-day moving average, something we haven't seen in a long time.
Meaning, me thinks, the Fed prefers inflation at this stage as opposed to the alternative.
I would have expected the banks to have been hit harder than they have by now, but I guess they knew Greenie would "fix" that yield curve for them, as he always does.
I admit the magnitude of the rally this week surprised me. But yes, Greenie acts like a drunken driver, a great analogy.
OK, so here goes: My gut feel is consumer spending on non-staples basically will go into the tank (see LZB), but capex spending improves significantly, and fairly soon, if it isn't happening already.
I hate these valuations, but I realize we're in a trader's market, and the big boys have to move paper one way or another.
PB |
