The market, especially tech rallies pretty strong after last May's bottom. But In the bigger picture, this huge
ramp up shows that we still have speculative elements of the bull market around, and I think it means that
we are not finished with the bear market.
And we should be expecting that volatility should continue to diminish over time, so it we had a sine wave, it
has huge amplitude swings up and down as the bull market peaks and then we morph into the bear and
the amplitude for each swing should decrease over time until the we have more of a sideways pattern.
Since last September, the easy money was made
by being short. It's so difficult to change horses.
I know what you mean :-)
The Market Vane % on the Spoos is pretty low currently............
Futures Researc
PETER G. GRENNAN (04/19/01) STOCK INDEX FUTURES MARKET COMMENT
. With the help of the Fed, SP broke above its three-week base
building. The base building began March 27 with SP when SP first closed over
over its 2% level under its 21 day ma. This was three sessions after Mar 22
low. Throughout the base building there were frequent indications that the
base building was constructive. Now what? With close over 1200, targets are
1280-1300. With April 10th close over 10000, Dow targets are 10800-11000. All
these are very subject to change/revision as market's patterns are monitored
through time. The 1233.50-1240.50 gap is now support. Globex tested this
last night. Resistance 1255-60. Over 1260.50, 1264-65. Over
1265.50, 1268-1272.
NYSE Financial Index has also been acting well. Its close over 600 has to be
held through tomorrow's close. FairValue+5.72;Buy+8.20;Sell+3.30.
.
STOCK INDEXES TRADING RANGES (04/19/01) ******COMPUTER TRADING RANGES******
DJM.(JUN) 10550 -10740 DJM SPMGLX SPM YXM NDM
SPM.(JUN) 1233.00 -1270.00 HIGH 2 10981 1304.73 1301.40 650.83 2045.17
YXM.(JUN) 625.00 - 638.00 HIGH 1 10823 1275.47 1273.80 640.92 1942.33
MDM.(JUN) 489.00 - 509.00 PIVOT 10581 1240.73 1242.40 628.08 1847.17
RLM.(JUN) 463.00 - 479.00 LOW 1 10423 1211.47 1214.80 618.17 1744.33
KVM.(JUN) 1159.00 -1189.00 LOW 2 10181 1176.73 1183.40 605.33 1649.17
NDM.(JUN) 1744.00 -1942.00
OSAKA NKM.(JUN)13710-14090 MARKET VANE AS OF (04-17-01) 28 VS 25
. **21-DAY M.A. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S CLOSES*******
*STOCHASTICS SP(SPM) YXM..593.74 SPM..1160.98 DJM.. 9897.70 NDM..1613.90
. HOURLY DAILY WKLY OEX..589.24 SPX..1153.15 DOW.. 9845.00 NDX..1600.90
%K 75.08 84.49 38.05 10-DAY TRIN..( .849) SP 500 JUN (SPM)
%D 77.30 79.95 27.17 10-DAY NAD...(+3365) FAIR VALUE+5.72
. SELL BUY BUY DJM FAIR VALUE+44.01 BUY PROGRAMS+8.20
. 04/18 04/09 04/12 NDM FAIR VALUE+12.88 SELL PROGRAMS+3.30
.
NASDAQ 100 COMMENT 04/19/01 **NASDAQ 100 GLOBEX SYMBOL for JUN (DNM)***
. NASDAQ 100 GLOBEX HIGH 1881.50;LOW 1839.00;CLOSE 1865.50.
. ND overcame 1750 on close. This close helps build the already
better looking ND pattern. As mentioned in April 11, 12, and 16 comments,
ND hadn't looked this good in weeks, since the January rally. Make first
support 1800-1820. Resistance 1880-1900.
.
. |
