On MSFT, I'm pretty positive, though I doubt seriously it's going to run back to 100+ any time soon. It's been very strong through the downturn. The main fear I have is the IBM-isation of it. I may start to nibble on it if we get a bit more downside, but really I don't expect to ever get the 30-40% returns on this one again. I still own it, and CSCO, and SEBL, and several other stocks that have been beaten up of late. It's enough that I feel I'm participating in the resurgence, without feeling any particular pressure to buy buy buy. If by chance you stumble over the next MSFT/CSCO/SEBL, do give me a shout, will you?
On the market as a whole, no clue. I'm still pretty much in cash, using options to play any upside rather than buying this rally. The general outlook for capex is pretty bad right now; everyone in the valley is cutting to the bone in an effort to put the props under flagging EPS numbers. This is what engineers call a positive feedback loop: "what goes around, comes around". There appears to be a downward spiral as businesses hold off purchases of high-tech goodies. Hopefully this will bottom soon, but who knows? Other worry factors are the continuing upward pressure on energy prices, and the mountain of bad debt out there.
Count me with the pessimists that see a bathtub-shaped downer, but not with those that see a re-run of the 70s. You'll note that we're now about to see a series of really bad quarterly reports, and I think it's significant that CSCO laid an egg without dropping much below where it was trading - this, so I'm told, is a sign of a bottom. On balance I think we've seen the worst, meaning the next bottom likely won't be lower than the last one, but could we see another retreat below 2000?, yes absolutely.
What say you, sir? |
