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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (96835)4/20/2001 12:21:54 PM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
Hi Jay, thanks, I did not realize that mortgages in Japan are multigenerational. That gives an interesting insight into the Japanese economy.

I posted yesterday after reading most of the Federal Reserve's Surveys of Consumer Finance that, while I find this counterintuitive, in the US household debt levels rise during periods of economic expansion and savings rates rise during periods of economic contraction - so actually rising debt levels and declining savings have been bullish signs historically - over the past few decades, anyway.

federalreserve.gov

The plummet in nonfinancial commercial paper outstandings tells me that businesses are not borrowing money - whether it's because they can't or because they don't want to, I don't know.

federalreserve.gov

I also posted an anecdote, that a loan officer from First Union was going door to door to local businesses handing out fliers offering to make business loans, so that suggests that businesses are not borrowing because they don't want to. Belt-tightening means fear of slowdowns ahead.

Anecdotally I can tell you that business lawyers around here say no deals are being made. The bankruptcy lawyers are swamped. I am getting calls on a daily basis by people who were fired and want to sue. If times were good they'd just get another job and forget about it.

But my crystal ball is hazy and I can't see the future.:)
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