AS - Believe me, I don't respond to you to be combative or antagonistic. Rather I respond for two reasons. One, to help further the education of all on the thread, and two - because I am always concerned about new folks who may be reading the thread and getting the wrong impression.
To elaborate - one of the benefits of posting on a thread like this is a good exchange of information, so each of us can continue the learning process. I am trying to encourage you not only to learn new ways of analyzing things for your own good, but also to challenge your "wild ass unsupported guesses". No matter how much or little experience one has, they can always learn more.
And secondly, I have always been concerned about new traders / investors getting the wrong idea from any thread. Thats why (ok shameless plug time) I am happy to help Rande out by moderating the beginning investor board on ProfitOften.com, the sister site of Insighters.com. And quite frankly, I find your posts dangerous to new investors / traders who may not know better. And I am not the only one - read Jason's post
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And I know there are others who agree.
now - you raised a couple more issues in your last post - and one in the previous one that I wanted to address for you:
You say - "My fearless predictions are not meant as advice just a game. You can compete too with your predictions"
I am not here to compete - nor to play a game. I am here to make money, and if I can, help share info with others to do the same - and hopefully, I learn things from them that helps me as well. WHen I have info about a trade, I post it - but I don't post all my trades for a variety of reasons - but mostly because I don't want people following me into them blindly. But for instance - on Monday, I posted this:
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As of today, you could have a 24% return if you did this trade. but I posted it once and left it at that - no endless 5 times a day rabmbling about the same old stocks like LOR, WCOM, LU, FON, VZ, etc. And if you noticed in the post, I gave lots of detail in my reasoning why I thought this was a good trade - not just some wild ass guess or gut feel with no supporting reason. IMO, thats the type of information you should strive for when you analyze your picks.
You also say "In reality we're just lucky if you ever get it right more than a few times in a row. I know this"
Maybe for you getting it right just a few times is ok. But this is what I do for a living. Same as Moufassa - and several others. If we were just "lucky" to get it right a few times - we couldn't be doing this full time.
lastly - you said " And what good was technical analysis in predicting this big rally?"
First off, there are all kinds of TA tools - and different people rely on different ones. Shoot - if there were a single one that gave a clear signal and everyone followed it - we wouldn't have a market like we know it. But there were indeed TA signs. Moufassa used his method of measuring the distance of prior moves, and predicting a target. I saw other signs (didn't you read the sermon:
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where I talked about investor sentiment, the ARMS index, the VIX and VXN, put/call ratios, asset allocaters, etc
No, these were'nt the technical charts that Mark and Velo use - but they are technical indicators - and IMO, they gave me a big bullish sign which is how I planned my trade and traded my plan. So, don't say that TA wasn't a factor in predicting this rally.
Hope this addresses everything. |
