forward earnings expectations:
In the last 90 days, consensus analyst EPS expectations for the next two quarters (to be reported on 5/15 and 8/13), have declined from 0.11 to 0.02, and from 0.13 to 0.04, respectively. These are large EPS cuts, and probably are very reliable. The only change I might make, is to cut the 0.04 expected for F1Q02, back to 0.02, as I don't see any reason why that quarter is going to be any better than F4Q01. A minor change.
For FYE 4/02, estimates have declined from 0.57 to 0.34. That's also a big cut, but the cuts come mostly from sharply lower expectations for calendar year 2001, while earnings in calendar year 2002 haven't been chopped much. So, the analysts are writing off CY01, and expecting a return to YOY higher earnings, by early-to-mid 2002. Those numbers are a lot less certain. It depends mainly on macro events, which can only be guessed at.
The stock anticipated these revised numbers, before the company made it official, and before the analysts changed their (publicly stated) numbers. The chart is saying that the analysts were changing their privately stated numbers, many months ago.
The "official" consensus numbers now look realistic, to me. Those numbers will probably hold, is my guess, with this major caveat: they will only make those numbers if we don't get a recession.
It looks like the stock is (tentatively) establishing a horizontal bottoming pattern. At least, we've stopped setting new lows every day. But stocks don't just go straight up, after falling this far and this fast. We need to back and fill for a while. On the way down, we stalled for a while, in mid-March, in the 19-23 range. We are now back to that area. If we stall here, then 23 or so will probably be the top of the bottoming pattern. I'd expect NTAP to have a very wide trading range in its bottoming pattern, with resistance at least twice the support price.
At the moment, I'm thinking of buying puts, at about the current price, and in increments every 4 points higher (in the stock price). I'd expect us to retest the previous lows, sometime this year, but I'd probably sell the puts before that. I'd consider going long, if we retest the 11.4 low, and bounce. Those lows may hold, If we don't get a recession. If we do get a recession, the bottom may be as low as 5. I won't be fully invested (long, that is), until either:
1. NTAP hits 5, or
2. I am fairly certain we aren't going to get a recession.
If I buy LEAPs (calls, that is), I will probably buy 2004 20s. Or I might just buy the stock.
PS: OK with me if you think out loud. I just post exactly what I think, and I really don't give a f*** whether anyone likes it or not. |
