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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 322.32-5.6%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (45695)4/20/2001 11:58:25 PM
From: brunn   of 70976
 
Re Over the last several years, AMAT has not only gained market share vs. other equipment companies

If AMAT is gaining on its competitors, it hasn't been appreciated by the market over the last couple years as these graphs show:

finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com

I feel that what I said about AMAT is true about the sector as a whole--semiequip business is bottoming with valuations atleast double previous cycle lows--NVLS, BRKS, KLAC all would be in the 20's rather than 40-50's if they were valued as they were in the fall of 1998. Therefore, your argument that AMAT's valuation has increased secondary to its greater market share does not make sense to me. You need arguments that apply to the entire sector rather than AMAT in particular (e.g. the 3 conjectures in my previous post.)

Now I agree that things change and that history does not necessarily repeat itself. However as investors, history is the best guide that we have and we should either expect patterns to repeat themselves or else try to understand why things are different now than before. I think it may actually be this obsession with the past (people remembering 500-1000% gains from previous lows) that are helping to propel AMAT now and will dampen its rise going forward.
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