Observations going into my 6th week (please note, these are not investment recommendations or even economic forecasts. Just things that make me go "hmmmmmm!"):
1. All mutual fund wholesalers (wholesellers? Hosalers? Oh,sailors? <g>) say that one cannot predict a top (and they definitely didn't) or a bottom, but we are now at a bottom as plain as your face, which is pretty darned plain in my case. And all mutual fund management cos. are #1 by some measurement factor. Forgive me, Father, I must confess my sin, for I believe that I started the last trend toward number oneness. When I managed funds back in the mid-80s, I measured performance, via Lipper, over one week, one month, YTD, 12 months, etc., or by yield. My convertible funds could be measured over 5, 10, and 15 year periods, too, at which point most of the competition didn't exist and #1 was easier to achieve. <g> Anyway, when it came time to rank competitive funds, I always used the term or category where my fund was #1 as the lead measurement device and the others, if they were not #1, as afterthoughts. That way, marketing always had a hook on which to hang their hats, and marketers are big on hookers. I guess others have figured out this flim-flam, because every fund co. now uses it.
2. Nearly all brokers are bulls all of the time. They are not stupid. They are not crooks, or, at least the majority are not crooks. (I did hear the story of a broker who sold closed end funds at their offerings, when they not only sell at NAV, but have a 7% monkey on their back that goes into the broker's gross. That is bad enough, but not necessarily a sign of dishonesty. After all, he may not truly know that 98% of all CEFs go to discount by the second year of existence. But, THEN, he put the CEF shares in an asset account where he receives ANOTHER annual fee on them. To the credit of the firm that told me the story, whose initials are AGE, and my own firm, this method of fleecing the public is no longer allowed.) Brokers are true believers. Folks, I drool at the thought of calling my competition's clients and giving them some tough love about true believing.
3. Annuities sound too good to be true. And I don't believe them. But I have yet to find a way to figure out what is wrong with the product. It cannot possibly be as good as it looks. I know that fees are the big bugaboo and the creditworthiness of the fly by night insurance co. is another. But I don't learn about annuities in detail for a month or so. My guess is they look good because we have just come off a big market mania.
4. Big Brother is not govt. He is corporate. 'Nuff said.
5. I am never changing firms (unless I get fired). The paperwork is stupendous for moving accounts and you can get sued by your old firm to boot. I have a great lawyer, so the latter doesn't bother me much. But the paperwork does. Especially since many of my clients will have extra paperwork for options and futures.
6. Non-bulls are considered bad people. So far, I have met nobody who understands that a bear market is an opportunity, too.
7. Indexing is king among the money managers. The current buzz word scam is asset allocation. This is based upon an academic report that is about two decades old and was flawed even then showing that allocation is what makes you money, not timing or stock picking. Total nonsense, where you pick the straw dogs you want to shoot down and throw softballs at your iron man. During the past 12 months, most asset allocators have burned up money. The money managers believe they deserve medals for "staying the course" during the bear market. Odd, we used to give medals for correctly judging the market and taking advantage of it. No wonder a chest full of medals no longer garners the respect of a grateful nation. I'm glad I turned down all the medals they didn't offer me when I was in the Army. <g>
8. Great catering when wholesalers visit. I am not going to have time for them when I am doing real work, but for now, yum, yum. <g>
9. Everyone loves Alan Da Printer and the allmighty dollar. As Doctor John The Nighttripper sang:
"Rack a tack a rumdum for the,
Allmighty dollar.
Everybody wanta get rich right away,
Right away, right away, right away.
Everybody wanta be ritzy,
Wanta be wealthy.
Me, I'd rather be
P-P-Poor and healthy."
Best,
Sir Cynical |
