Welcome, macavity.
Since last weekend, of course, the DOW broke the 10300 level, and suddenly the ‘C’ of an ABC begins to look suspiciously like a 3 of 5. The NAZ seems to be completing a powerful impulse wave. It is at least an ‘A’, or, maybe, a 1 of 5, which will make up a larger ‘A’.
In either case, the next move should be a decline in both indices. The only thing I don’t like about this short-term call is that it appears to be the consensus. Too bloody orderly. I would not be surprised if the market pulls off another mighty extension to the upside, to trap some more bulls and to screw some more shorts.
Still, on any further rally, scaling into a conservative put or short position as a trade or a hedge, could be done with an acceptable risk, IMO.
Once the move down materializes, the NAZ would be retracing its impulse rally from the April 4 low. The Dow would be correcting only its recent advance in wave 3, rather than the entire rally since March.
I agree with your larger count since March 2000, and your sentiment observations are, I think, very much on target.
Welcome again; I was getting too comfy here, talking to myself ;-)
AK |
