Seams to me that SI bio-forums are influenced and poisoned with street anxiety. What may happen next two-three weeks, months, next 1-2 Q, next year,…?
If I know that it will rain next week or so, I will shut off my sprinkler system today and save water. However, if I am wrong and it does not rain, my plants will go dry. I will lose months and years of planting, growing, and cultivating.
The some is valid for bio-sector investing. If I try to protect (or generate) 20-30% near term gain (going long, short or neutral) with thought that market will go this or that way, I may risk all my work and planing for many past and future years. No doubt, it was not fun watching net worth of my portfolio losing ~45% at March-end (from last year Nov. high). No doubt, I wish that I have capability to protect myself and predict future market move (or future stock price move in my holding). No doubt, I will be five times richer than I am today.
However, I can not do this and I doubt that anyone can.
If we did not stayed focused in summer ‘98 we will surely miss fruitful 99 and 00. Simple because we were not focused on 20-30 % near term gain. Is today any different from 98. NO!
The more negative street is on sector the stronger move will be when time come. It is not issue when? Or it will at all? It will and I am more positive today that in summer 98. The issue is which stocks will bear majority of the move? Which sub-sector will generate more value? What platforms, business models, targets, candidates, … are here in front of as today and will play dominant rule tomorrow?
This is also very hard to predict. Glory to those who can or are close to it.
No doubt, it is easy to predict what may not work that what may. However, if human philosophy (and investment bets) is what WILL NOT, we will still be living in cages. If bio-sector isn’t for real we will not have $40 B sector- investment in 00. No doubt, this $40 B will generate (surely not overnight) in five years at least $400B in sector valuation. Oh GOD, wish I know where and how will be distributed?
The point is that sector will generate comps whose *irrational* in MC will exceed 00 frenzy time. Pick your comps well, pick them with strong hand.
If you are still anxious, call you doctor and ask (not for prescriptions) for investment advice. <g>
Miljenko |
