Hi toscano,
First, excuse my longish note on this working thread. It is Sunday, in HK anyway. All good natured fun.
On your thoughts started off with ...
<<What then puzzles me is...>>
The central issue is the fickle faith of folks around the world in their own currency vs the USD.
At some point, the values in each folks own region will become compelling, by definition, else all things of value will truly reside on the Nasdaq. When this magical moment is upon us, even if for one fraction of one year, for whatever good or bad or combination of reasons, money will seek the next opportunities.
<<Japan>>
Like you, I do not believe in a wondrous future for Japan, but they will need their money eventually, and the market looks forward.
<<Euro>>
Do not know, but it will not likely disappear anytime soon, as agreement takes time to arrange and so does palace coup (if by Germany or France).
But Euro based assets represents true competition to US based assets, at some valuation point in time.
<<Argentina>>
Most interesting to watch for now, but be ready to buy and buy hard, with frenzied enthusiasm, as it is the next opportunity, especially compared to anything on the Nasdaq.
<<So... if the US Dollar, (from the technical Analysis perspective), is nearing a possible slide...>>
Correct.
<<in the long term, which currency will benefit ?>>
Forget long term. There is no long term. One hiccup, the long term is gone or never arrives.
<<None ? That leaves gold. (which personally, I doubt it)>>
Ooh, I doubt it too, but I give it some chance, and the chance is better than CSCO reaching $80 in the next 36-48 months. It just needs a little spark, as the fuel is all arranged for.
<<... plus all central bankers have been selling it anyway>>
All the more reason to buy a little, for that 1 in 40 chance of orbital velocity and weightless nirvana. Since when have the central banks been right in that forbidden to think about long term, other than gradually draining the life blood out of people's NAVs?
<<People outside the US, see the US Dollar as the "safe heaven" (see above) that their own currencies are not>>
People outside the US see the USD as simply another asset to be traded for some other asset as the Heat Map momo dictates. People are that way because people are greedy.
<<Bottom line...valuation joke...dot bomb...all gone>>
Hardly all gone, and the debt remains in telcos, utilities, people's balance sheet.
The growth is gone, and the crazy valuation remains, just made worse last week.
<<such as the third world countries on the verge of collapse, are the reasons why AG has been lowering interest rates>>
Al doesn't give two hoots about the third world, and the third world on their own cannot matter to the US. Nope, like Soros envisioned, the first world is in the soup, and imo, the next leg up will be the emerging world, after it is beaten down on its face. I am excited.
<<Alan Greenspan is the "de-facto" Central Banker to the world>>
He is, but answerable only to his boss and the media, and he wants to be loved, just as analysts and strategists. He believes in gold but hates it. I am doubly excited.
<<Lower standards (in the US), seem to succeed, since in other countries... the standards are even lower ...>>
With prices in third world also going lower, faster. I am TRIPLE EXCITE, in caps yet. Best to start putting all ADRs on MS Watch List.
<<In the land of blind men, the one eyed is King.[still]>>
And when that King fumbles, it will be mass grope time. Snuggle close to the attractive girls corner. Oops, when blind, they are all attractive.
All bets are off if the GS and MER manage to start a space exploration and cosmo mining mania. On second thought, if they do, the resource value on earth would collapse. Uhm, maybe that is why GS lowered the boom on NEM.
In the long term, if the USD does not fall against something, history will effectively have ended, and that would indeed be a brave bet.
Chugs, Jay |
